BRICE COFFER
Senior Research Scholar, North Carolina State University
BIO
Welcome! I am a Senior Research Scholar in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University, and a member of the Convective Storms Group. My current research focuses on using observations from field projects to study how the environment affects the in-storm processes within supercells thunderstorms that eventually lead to tornadogenesis (or the lack thereof).
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In my free time, I enjoy spending time with my dog Denali, gardening, playing and watching
soccer, hiking, biking, and skiing. When I'm not home, you can probably find me living out of my car somewhere and working remotely. Fun fact about me, after I started my PhD in 2015, I got inspired by the upcoming National Park Service Centennial and started a journey to visit every US National Park, and as of 2021, I have visited 54 out of 63.
CURRENT PROJECTS
2022Â - 2025
STORM-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS CONTROLLING THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL TORNADO GENESIS
Recent research has specifically connected the lower tropospheric wind profile (specifically, near-ground storm-relative helicity) to the dynamical accelerations that support stretching of near-surface vorticity into a tornado. But, our community has yet to explain why tornadogenesis so frequently fails to occur within seemingly favorable environments. We require more detailed explanations of the tornadogenesis process, including the failure points that hinder tornadogenesis in nontornadic supercells, and their physical linkages to specific environmental traits. The goals of the proposed research are to: 1) explain how environmental heterogeneity modulates tornado production in supercells; 2) establish the relative importance of environmental vs. storm generated SRH in the dynamic lifting produced by low-level mesocyclones; and, 3) explain the origins of large environmental SRH.
2019-2022
UNDERSTANDING THE INFRASOUND CHARACTERISTICS OF NONTORNADIC AND TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN VORTEX2 AND VORTEX-SE ENVIRONMENTS USING HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS
There is evidence that tornadic thunderstorms exhibit observable infrasound signals. What is not well-understood is whether these infrasound signals are unique to tornadic storms. In order to have operational utility, there must be identifiable differences between the infrasound emitted by tornadic vs. nontornadic storms. The goal of this project is to examine the generation and characteristics of infrasound in these simulated storms in order to assess whether the infrasonic characteristics of nontornadic and tornadic supercells are unique enough to improve upon the current probability of detection and false alarm ratio for tornado warnings.
2018 - 2022
MECHANISMS CONTROLLING THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOGENESIS IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
Considerable recent research has focused on understanding the origins of surface vertical vorticity in tornadic storms. But, a large fraction of intense supercells are nontornadic despite possessing abundant surface vertical vorticity. Our community has yet to explain why tornadogenesis so frequently fails to occur within seemingly favorable environments. Past studies have identified several environmental proxies that are generally associated with the probability of supercell tornadogenesis, but the physical "cause and effect" linkages to within-storm processes remain elusive. The goals of the proposed research are to: 1) explain why supercells with large surface vertical vorticity often fail to produce significant tornadoes; 2) establish the environmental proxies that are most directly, physically linked to supercells with a high probability of tornadogenesis; and, 3) explain why multiple supercells within the same environment can differ dramatically in terms of tornado production.
FIELD WORK
PERILS
UPCOMING IN 2022 & 2023
Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are responsible for approximately a quarter of all tornado events in the U.S. The majority of QLCS tornadoes occur in the Southeastern (SE) U.S. and the percentage of tornadoes associated with QLCSs, as opposed to supercells, appears to be higher in this region than in the remainder of the U.S. Unfortunately, common forecast skill metrics are significantly worse in QLCS tornado events than in supercell tornado events. This is due, in part, to our lack of understanding regarding QLCS tornadogenesis processes and is compounded by short temporal and small spatial scales for QLCS tornadogenesis, which are not often captured by the conventional operational radar network. PERiLS (Propagation, Evolution and Rotation in Linear Storms) is a field project (slated for Spring 2022 and Spring 2023) that will combine critical instruments from NSF and NOAA to provide the sampling necessary to address environmental factors and storm processes that lead to QLCS tornadogenesis.
VORTEX-SE
The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast (VORTEX-SE) is a research program to understand how environmental factors characteristic of the southeastern United States affect the formation, intensity, structure, and path of tornadoes in this region. VORTEX-SE will also determine the best methods for communicating forecast uncertainty related to these events to the public, and evaluate public response. In many ways, VORTEX-SE represents a new approach to tornado research in general.
PECAN
Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) is a large, intensive field project to collect data before and during nighttime thunderstorms in the arid western Great Plains from June 1 to July 15, 2015. Scientists hope to learn what triggers these storms, how the atmosphere supports their lifecycle, and how they impact lives, property, agriculture and the water budget in the region. PECAN research will impact the nation’s forecasting and numerical weather prediction capabilities through collaborative efforts between the academic community and NSSL. The effort is highly relevant to NOAA’s goal to assess the increasing dependence of storm-scale prediction on numerical modeling, as in the Warn on Forecast initiative.
VORTEX2
The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2 (VORTEX2) is the largest tornado research project in history to explore how, when and why tornadoes form. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) are supporting more than 100 scientists and students and staff from around the world to collect weather measurements around and under a supercell thunderstorm. VORTEX2 teams are using a fleet of 10 mobile radars, and 70 other instruments all equipped with cutting-edge communication and computer technologies. Much about tornadoes remains a mystery, and researchers hope this data will help them better understand tornadoes and lead to further improvements in tornado warning skill.
